Shane Simonsen discusses the energy crisis and how industrialization was built on the resource base of cheap coal and oil whose quality and quantity is depleting which will affect the complexity of modern society and exacerbate economic and political issues.
Nonsense. Peak Oil “researchers” have been wrong from the start and continue to be proven wrong. At a high enough price for the commodity, new sources will be found.
This is disappointing. Despite our increasing consumption of oil, total proven oil reserves around the world are increasing and the only proven alternatives to oil are poverty and misery.
Even if proven oil reserves around they world are increasing (which is always the case, because new discoveries are always being made), the question is: are they large enough in volume to replace the shortfall while depleting old reserves run out? New discoveries are typically small in volume.
Well, I agree that there's no real replacement for oil, except coal, but coal cannot fully replace oil. So yes, if oil is actually in the process of declining , which (on balance) does seem to be the case, then we are looking at declining living standards.
The bigger immediate issue is the possibility of more wars, because with growing scarcity, stronger nations tend to become more aggressive. The issue is that people in rich countries have become too used to having abundance - an easy life based upon an abundance of oil - so it's going to be VERY difficult for especially people in the most affluent nations to adapt. It's basically going to be like addicts going through withdrawal symptoms, (while in poorer nations people will adapt much easier).
Oil is not becoming more scarce. You're purposefully misleading readers.
Based on the search results provided, here is a summary of the global known proven oil reserves:
- According to Statista, the global proved crude oil reserves amounted to 244.4 billion metric tons in 2020.[1]
- The chart in the search result [2] shows that the global crude oil reserves have increased from around 1.2 trillion barrels in 1960 to around 1.56 trillion barrels as of 2022.
- The Wikipedia article [3] provides a comparison of proven oil reserves from different sources like BP, OPEC, and the U.S. EIA. It shows that the total proven oil reserves globally range from around 1.5 to 1.7 trillion barrels, depending on the source.
- The Our World in Data chart [4] also depicts the global trend in total proven oil reserves, showing an overall increase over the past few decades.
In summary, the search results indicate that the global known proven oil reserves have been increasing over time, with current estimates ranging from around 1.5 to 1.7 trillion barrels. The data suggests that global proven oil reserves are not declining, but rather increasing due to new discoveries and improved extraction technologies.
It' much more complicated than that. I've been following the subject of 'peak-oil' for 10 years by now and I can tell you that's not just simply a matter of listing some mainstream sources about global known proven oil reserves. There's a whole range of factors that you are not considering. I can only guess that you are not comprehensively informed, which is why you make the argument above.
I can only recommend that you watch through this discussion by someone with 40 years+ in the industry:
The 15 minutes between 30 and 45 minutes covers the main gist of it, but really, it's worth listening to all of it as the interviewer asks a lot of questions from different angles which results in a number of answers that provides some idea of the factors that you are apparently unaware of.
It's better to be humble and consider the possibility that alt-media suffers from some major blind-spots when it comes to peak-oil. I'e already pointed out elsewhere that this is one area where they can really up their game.
Nonsense. Peak Oil “researchers” have been wrong from the start and continue to be proven wrong. At a high enough price for the commodity, new sources will be found.
This is disappointing. Despite our increasing consumption of oil, total proven oil reserves around the world are increasing and the only proven alternatives to oil are poverty and misery.
Even if proven oil reserves around they world are increasing (which is always the case, because new discoveries are always being made), the question is: are they large enough in volume to replace the shortfall while depleting old reserves run out? New discoveries are typically small in volume.
Can you provide references for total proven oil reserves around the world increasing?
Google is your friend.
Let's say I'm wrong (which I'm not) what is your alternative to oil? The only proven alternative is poverty and misery.
Well, I agree that there's no real replacement for oil, except coal, but coal cannot fully replace oil. So yes, if oil is actually in the process of declining , which (on balance) does seem to be the case, then we are looking at declining living standards.
The bigger immediate issue is the possibility of more wars, because with growing scarcity, stronger nations tend to become more aggressive. The issue is that people in rich countries have become too used to having abundance - an easy life based upon an abundance of oil - so it's going to be VERY difficult for especially people in the most affluent nations to adapt. It's basically going to be like addicts going through withdrawal symptoms, (while in poorer nations people will adapt much easier).
Oil is not becoming more scarce. You're purposefully misleading readers.
Based on the search results provided, here is a summary of the global known proven oil reserves:
- According to Statista, the global proved crude oil reserves amounted to 244.4 billion metric tons in 2020.[1]
- The chart in the search result [2] shows that the global crude oil reserves have increased from around 1.2 trillion barrels in 1960 to around 1.56 trillion barrels as of 2022.
- The Wikipedia article [3] provides a comparison of proven oil reserves from different sources like BP, OPEC, and the U.S. EIA. It shows that the total proven oil reserves globally range from around 1.5 to 1.7 trillion barrels, depending on the source.
- The Our World in Data chart [4] also depicts the global trend in total proven oil reserves, showing an overall increase over the past few decades.
In summary, the search results indicate that the global known proven oil reserves have been increasing over time, with current estimates ranging from around 1.5 to 1.7 trillion barrels. The data suggests that global proven oil reserves are not declining, but rather increasing due to new discoveries and improved extraction technologies.
Citations:
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/264331/global-oil-reserves-since-1990/
[2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/236657/global-crude-oil-reserves-since-1990/
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves
[4] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-proved-reserves
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_States
It' much more complicated than that. I've been following the subject of 'peak-oil' for 10 years by now and I can tell you that's not just simply a matter of listing some mainstream sources about global known proven oil reserves. There's a whole range of factors that you are not considering. I can only guess that you are not comprehensively informed, which is why you make the argument above.
I can only recommend that you watch through this discussion by someone with 40 years+ in the industry:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1LsMiuFzoI
The 15 minutes between 30 and 45 minutes covers the main gist of it, but really, it's worth listening to all of it as the interviewer asks a lot of questions from different angles which results in a number of answers that provides some idea of the factors that you are apparently unaware of.
It's better to be humble and consider the possibility that alt-media suffers from some major blind-spots when it comes to peak-oil. I'e already pointed out elsewhere that this is one area where they can really up their game.